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A democratic election is the collective selection of leaders and representatives, allowing multiple principals to choose their agents. |
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When principals select their agents, they try to avoid problems of hidden information (adverse selection) and problems of hidden action (moral hazard). |
| 1) How Does Government Regulate the Electoral Process? |
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Governments decide when, where, how, and which citizens can participate. |
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A) Electoral Competition |
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Suffrage restrictions, as well as poll taxes, literacy tests, poll placement, personal registration requirements, and scheduling all have been used to limit votes. |
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Registration requirements have traditionally been onerous. This fact, along with the presence of traditionally weaker parties helps to explain why turnout is lower in the United States than in several other democracies. |
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B) Translating Voters' Choices into Electoral Outcomes |
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Two types of rules matter: Criteria for winning and definition of electoral districts. |
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We tend to use a plurality system as our criteria for winning, which tends to favor majorities over less advantaged groups. |
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Every 10 years, following the census, district lines are redrawn by each state. Partisan and racial gerrymandering have been common practices, as those in power draw lines to maximize their advantage. |
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C) Insulating Decision-Making Processes |
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Most governments do not trust the public to decide every office, and ours originally only entrusted the election of members of the House of Representatives directly to the people. |
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The Electoral College is a controversial mechanism for presidential selection, occasionally choosing the popular-vote loser, as in 2000 with George W. Bush. |
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Other institutional rules that influence outcomes include the frequency of elections, the size of electoral districts, and the use of the Australian ballot. |
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| 2) How Do Voters Decide? |
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A) Partisan Loyalty |
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Partisan loyalty is both a psychological attachment and an informational shortcut to economize on information collection and processing. |
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B) Issues |
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Voters will choose the candidates closest to them on salient issues. Voters will engage in both prospective and retrospective voting to reward or punish incumbents. |
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In our system, the median voter theorem suggests more centrist candidates will be successful. |
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C) Candidate Characteristics |
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Personal attributes matter, including race, ethnicity, religion, gender, geography, social background, and appearance. Other characteristics include decisiveness, honesty, and vigor. |
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Experience often matters as well. |
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| 3) The 2004 Elections |
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Senior adviser to the president, Karl Rove, emphasized three strategies during the president's first administration to insure Bush's re-election in 2004: |
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An expansive economic policy including tax cuts and low interest rates. Presidents who hold office during times of recession generally aren't re-elected. |
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Early and ambitious fund-raising for the next campaign |
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The War on Terror: Bush's declaration of a war on terrorism, although not a war in the traditional sense, encouraged Americans to look to their government for leadership as people usually do in wartime. |
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A) Democratic Opportunities |
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Bush faced several problems during his first administration that the Democrats hoped to exploit to their own advantage in the 2004 election. |
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Economic growth was slow and job growth extremely limited |
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Weapons of mass destruction were not discovered in Iraq and no connection between Saddam and terrorism was found. Many Americans felt that Bush had misrepresented his reasons for going to war. |
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Iraqi resistance to U.S. troops resulted in steady casualties |
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9/11 Commission embarrassed the president further by announcing that the Bush administration had not been sufficiently attentive to the terrorist threat before September 2001. |
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Democrats and liberal activists prepared for the coming election by registering millions of new Democratic voters. |
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B) Republican Strategies |
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GOP attempted to counter Democrats with their own voter registration campaigns, especially in so-called battleground states |
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Republicans emphasized moral and religious themes to mobilize religious voters |
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Bush worked to discredit John Kerry |
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C) The End Game |
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Although Bush had a sizable lead, he did not perform well at the presidential debates and pos-debate polls indicated that he and Kerry were neck and neck |
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In the weeks leading up to the election, both parties increased their mobilization efforts |
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In the end, the GOP's superior on-the-ground organization prevailed. The turnout of religious conservatives secured a narrow electoral victory for Bush. |
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| 4) Campaign Finance |
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A) Sources of Campaign Funds |
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¼ is raised through small, direct-mail contributions, usually $25-$50. |
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¼ from PACs, or Political Action Committees, the fund-raising arms of interest groups. |
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¼ from large individual gifts |
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¼ from parties and the candidates themselves, although parties are limited in how they spend soft money. |
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B) Campaign Finance Reform |
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Most democracies require either public funding or require large donations to go to parties rather than individual candidates. |
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McCain-Feingold has placed new limits on certain types of advertising and soft money expenditures, but it is being challenged in the Supreme Court. |
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C) Implications for Democracy |
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Money matters, and not all groups are equally wealthy and able to influence outcomes. |
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The increasing importance of money raises questions about the ability of ordinary Americans to influence outcomes. |
| 5) Do Elections Matter? |
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A) Why Is There a Decline in Voter Turnout? |
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The decline of parties is certainly one factor, as is the greater frequency of elections, the relatively high costs of voting, unfavorable registration rules, and less competitive, vigorous campaigns. |
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B) Why Do Elections Matter as Political Institutions? |
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The fact of voting may be more important than the individual choice, because elections socialize political activity, they bolster the government's power and legitimacy, and institutionalize mass influence in politics. |
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