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Regional Instability

A Second-Lens Analysis
Snapshot: Domestic Instability as Causal Variable

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Introduction

The assumption behind Second.Lens analyses is that the domestic structure of states is the key to determining how countries conduct foreign policy. Using this lens leads to a look inside the state rather than an examination of the interests or personality of a particular leader or the distribution of power across the international system. A Second.Lens view reveals how Iraq's and the United States's political structure, economic situation, and demographics contributed to the mutual decision to go to war in January 1991. A Second-Lens analysis, if compelling, suggests that any two leaders would have faced off given the domestic stakes surrounding the 15 January 1991 decision.

Although the Second Lens will point to the differences between democracies and authoritarian states and how both Iraq and the United States were reliant on oil, the most persuasive Second-Lens variable seems to be Iraq's potential for domestic instability. This variable not only structured the decisions of the Iraqi regime, but reinforced the Bush administration's view of the crisis as a regional balance-of-power contest.

To understand the influence of these domestic variables, a Second.Lens analysis must begin with snapshots of the Iraqi and the U.S. governments, economic resources, and populations. Brief snapshots of these basic elements depict the context in which war occurred.

After an initial examination of these three variables, a Second-Lens analysis will explain how avoiding the regional destabilization that would result from Iraqi collapse was in the mutual interest of the United States and Iraq.


Second-Lens Snapshots

A SNAPSHOT: GOVERNMENT
A SNAPSHOT: ECONOMICS AND NATURAL RESOURCES
A SNAPSHOT: POPULATION AND PUBLIC SUPPORT

A Second-Lens Analysis: Avoiding Iraqi Collapse—A Mutual Interest

 

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