Trends and Patterns in War

Chapter 8 discusses theories on the causes of war as well as different forms of warfare, including general war, limited war, civil war, and terrorism. In light of the historical review in chapter 2, a number of patterns and trends in the nature and causes of war can be identified. In this exercise, you will consider a few trends and think critically about possible explanations for the patterns.

I. Concepts. Review the chapter 8’s discussion of the causes of war at the individual, state, and system levels of analysis and its presentation of the four types of warfare noted above.

II. Trends in Warfare 

• Pattern 1: Increasing size and destructiveness through 1945 and World War II. Empirical studies of conflict and war over time indicate that wars grew increasingly general and destructive up to 1945. For example, on average, 1 million people died in war every fifty years from the time of Rome to 1899. Since 1900, the average time for 1 million people to die in war has been reduced to one year. Additionally, more than four times as many people have died from warfare in the twentieth century as in the preceding four centuries combined. Finally, the most powerful countries of the world were the most likely participants in war until 1945. Drawing on the discussion of the causes of war in chapter 8 and the historical summary in chapter 2, what are the best explanations of this trend? Brainstorm at last three explanations.
• Pattern 2: Limited wars since 1945. As your text suggests, and empirical studies of conflict and war indicate, the scope of war has become more limited since 1945. According to Worldwatch, nine of every ten wars since 1945 have taken place in weak or failed states. Moreover, unlike the four hundred years preceding 1945, there have been no wars between the most powerful countries of the world since 1945. All wars have been either within or between developing countries, or between a developing country and a major power. Considering the discussion of the causes of war in chapter 8 and the historical summary of the key developments in the world since 1945 in chapter 2, what are the best explanations of this trend? Brainstorm at least three explanations.
• Pattern 3: Civil Wars since 1989. Empirical studies of conflict and war indicate that since 1989 war is more likely to occur within a country than between two or more countries. For example, according to a 2000 study by Wallensteen and Sollenberg (“Armed Conflict, 1989–1999,” Journal of Peace Research 37 [September 2000]: 635–649), 103 of 110 wars between 1989 and 1999 were intrastate or civil wars (find the data at www.peace.uu.se). Considering the discussion of the causes of war in chapter 8 and the historical summary of the key developments in the world since 1989 in chapter 2, what are the best explanations of this trend? Brainstorm at least three explanations.

III. Conclusion. Reflect on the patterns and explanations you just worked through. Write a few sentences in response to each of the following summary questions: (1) What do these trends and explanations suggest to you about war as a problem of world politics, especially its causes and nature? (2) What do these trends and causes suggest to you about the possibility of controlling or eliminating war?