Decision-making: Individual and Group Influences on Foreign Policy

Chapter 5 discusses models of foreign-policy decision making that help explain how foreign policy is crafted. Chapter 6 then discusses the impact of the elites, private individuals, and mass publics on the creation and implementation of foreign policy and discusses how individual actors may fit into the decision-making models. Each of these factors may impact individual decisions in varying ways. In this exercise, you will review the various models of decision-making and the role of individuals in foreign policy. You will then be asked to take on the role of a key decision maker and balance these various factors to make a policy choice.

The Concepts

Review the models of foreign-policy decision making in chapter 5 as well as the types of individuals and groups who influence foreign policy. Consider the following questions:

  • Who are the most powerful actors in crafting foreign policy? Why?
  • Are there other actors in foreign-policy decision-making?
  • How do other actors exert influence in foreign-policy decisions?

The Situation

You are President George H. W. Bush. As president of the United States, you are faced with many foreign policy decisions about how to handle international relations. It is June 5, 1989, and the world has just witnessed Chinese troops’ violent actions against democratic protestors in Tiananmen Square. Many states are preparing to implement sanctions against China as punishment for the human rights violations. There is considerable curiosity about how the United States will respond. However, just as with every foreign policy decision, there are numerous actors who have influence and opinions, and many are in conflict with one another. It is your task to decide how the United States will respond.

  • First, read the short summary of the Tiananmen Square massacre found on Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiananmen_Square_protests_of_1989). Make a few notes of important facts and issues.
  • Second, consider the following list of interested individuals and groups, understanding that you will be responsible for providing a response and will be held accountable by these players:
    • The U.S. Military. China is a large and potentially powerful adversary. The uneasy relations between the United States and China have slowly begun to ease in 1988 and early 1989. The military is not eager to reignite old tensions. Also, China recently agreed to cooperate in the Missile Technology Control Regime, which would help curb the spread of ballistic missile capabilities to countries such as Iran, Iraq, and North Korea.
    • Democratic-led Congress. The opposition party has a strong majority in Congress, and many are calling for you to publicly condemn the actions of and impose sanctions on China for its brutal human rights abuses.
    • American Businesses. The American business community is split on what should be done. Some manufacturing companies are eager to impose sanctions in order to limit Chinese input in markets and increase reliance on American production and labor. However, other hi-tech and manufacturing firms such as Boeing and Microsoft are concerned that imposing sanctions would block them from a lucrative market of nearly 1 billion consumers and damage American trade.
    • International Organizations. The UN as well as America’s allies in NATO are considering sanctions and may be looking to the United States for leadership. However, a key Asian ally, Japan, believes that economic issues and human rights issues should not be linked.
    • Nongovernmental Organizations. Human rights organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch are calling for global action condemning and punishing the human rights violations.
    • U.S. Mass Public – The U.S. media has broadcast images of the protest and massacre, framing the event as an issue of great importance. American public opinion indicates a substantial reversal of favorable feeling toward China. A majority of Americans see the Chinese government’s response as an assault on attempts by a repressed people to achieve freedom and democracy, two things that are a fundamental part of American culture. Public opinion indicates that not only does the U.S. public overwhelmingly disprove of Chinese actions, but also it supports U.S. condemnation and economic action against China.
  • Third, reflect on the various interests the United States has, and their relative importance in the situation. Consider security interests, political/diplomatic interests, economic interests, humanitarian interests, interests concerning principles (e.g., human rights and democracy), and others you think relevant given your review of the situation.
  • Weigh the positions and the actors you think most significant (including the costs of listening to or ignoring those actors and their views). Rank the interests you consider most important.
  • Your Decision

As president it is your responsibility to weigh the costs and benefits of possible foreign policy options and devise an appropriate and effective response. What are your possible options? List at least three. Identify the pros and cons of each option. Select the best option. What calculations led you to that selection? What possible international and domestic responses will greet this decision?