Chapter 8
Chapter 8: Elections
Chapter Review
Elections provide voters the opportunity to select who will represent them at various
levels of government, from the U.S. presidency to the local mayor.
- When selecting the U.S. president, there are two ways to count votes:
- The popular vote is the number for votes citizens cast for each of the presidential
candidates.
- The electoral vote is the number of votes electoral college members
cast for each of the presidential candidates. If a candidate wins a certain state,
the candidate wins the votes of electoral college members. These votes are the ones
that determine the winner.
- Many congressional races occur during presidential election, and there are two ways
to classify most congressional races:
- Most congressional elections are an example of a normal election, with relatively
low seat shift and rather stable party ratios, ultimately leading to high reelection
rates for both party’s incumbents.
- Nationalized elections occur rarely, and
typically bring about a large seat shift and low reelection rates for one party’s
incumbents. These are often associated with a broad shift in the national political
climate.
- Elections allow citizens the opportunity to choose their representatives and to
reward or punish incumbent politicians.
- Those currently holding political office are known as incumbents.
- A challenger
is a politician running for an office that he or she does not hold at the time of
the election.
- A challenger is a politician running for an office that he or
she does not hold at the time of the election.
- Voters often choose between voting
for the incumbent and the challenger by evaluating the incumbent’s performance in
the past term, which is called retrospective evaluation.
How Elections Work
- Congressional Elections
- There are two steps to congressional elections: the primary, when a political party
determines which nominee will run on their behalf in the general election, when
the voters determine who the office holder will be.
- While senators represent the entirety of one state, House members represent specific
districts.
- These districts are often determined by state legislatures, and are adjusted every
ten years following the results of the census. Depending on how the district lines
are drawn, state legislatures can dramatically change the outcome of a race.
-
Legislators from different districts face very different demands from their constituents,
depending on what interests are important to people they represent.
- Most House and Senate races are determined using plurality voting, meaning that
the person who received the most votes wins, while others use majority voting, which
requires that a candidate has to receive more than 50 percent of the votes to be
declared winner.
- Different counties use different forms of ballots: some use keypunch paper ballots,
some use mechanical hole punch ballots, while others use touch-screen voting machines,
and there are many more.
- The rules of voting instruments can influence the results.
- The likelihood of an undervote is influenced by the type of voting instrument.
- Controversy between Al Gore and George W. Bush over the “butterfly ballot” in
Palm Beach County, Florida
- Many people and groups (including political parties, interest groups and campaign
consultants) get involved in support for candidates during elections.
- Presidential Elections
- Similar in many ways to congressional elections, but with important nuances
- Primaries and Caucuses
- At the state level, the primary and caucus nominees win delegates, who cast votes
in the national convention to determine their party’s candidate for the general
election.
- The Democratic Party uses proportional allocation of delegates reflecting each candidate’s
vote share.
- In addition to these pledged delegates, Democrats also have superdelegates, who
are party leaders and elected officials.
- Superdelegates are not committed to any candidate and can make their decision based
on their own judgment.
- The Republican Party allocates delegates in two ways: proportional allocation and
winner-take-all, depending on the state.
- While success in the early contests is not a sure predictor of receiving the nomination,
a poor showing in the early contests is likely to lead to an early exit.
- Because of the importance of these early contests, many states are frontloading:
moving their primaries and caucuses earlier in the year to exert more influence
on the outcome.
- The National Convention
- Each party hosts its own national convention, where delegates vote for the party’s
nominee.
- Vice presidential candidates are also officially named, and the party platform is
voted on.
- The convention is heavily publicized and gives the party an opportunity
to increase its visibility.
- Presidential Voting
- Rather than voting directly for presidential candidates, voters actually vote
for the candidate’s pledged supporters (electors), who then vote for the president.
- The number of electors as state has equals that state’s number of House and Senate
members.
- Except for Nebraska and Maine, state electors are determined through
a winner-take-all system.
- The winner-take-all system leads to candidates focusing
on large states (with lots of electors) and swing states, at the expense of smaller
and less competitive states.
- The rules of the electoral college do not require
that a candidate receive a majority of the popular vote, only the majority of the
electoral college votes.
Electoral Campaigns
- Following each election, a party’s control of a seat is determined to be safe or
vulnerable based on a number of calculations. Political parties and candidates make
strategic decisions based on these assessments.
- Is it possible for the out-party’s candidate to raise a significant amount of money
for the campaign?
- Will the upcoming election year be one that favors a particular party?
- Will an incumbent be seeking reelection (which is generally considered safe) or
will the seat be an open seat (which is more vulnerable)?
- There are many things candidates do before the actual campaign to make themselves
more secure.
- Most incumbents maintain a permanent campaign, meaning that they never stop working
to build support by traveling around their district and talking with constituents.
- Politicians may try to do what they can to boost the economy going into the election
in an attempt to increase their support, known as the political business cycle.
- Candidates compete in the “money primary” by starting fundraising well in advance
of an election to simultaneously run a good campaign and keep strong competitors
at bay.
- Candidates also work in the talent primary to attract talented people to join their
campaign staff.
- During the actual electoral campaign, candidates utilize a number of strategies
- Candidates may contact voters directly through retail politics or indirectly via
wholesale politics.
- Doing so helps build name recognition, which simply means that voters are familiar
with the candidate.
- Candidates seek to mobilize their supporters: making sure that they get to the polls
on election day (which is known as getting out the vote, or GOTV).
- Candidates work hard to publicizing their campaign platform, which is their list
of issue stances.
- Candidates have to balance their support for issues that their party is concerned
about with support for issues that voters are concerned about.
- The issues that candidates support have important implications for everything from
what groups offer campaign support to which candidates the voters support.
- Candidates often attempt to show the voters that they share common beliefs and interests.
- They often present themselves to the public as “average Americans” doing everyday
things, such as going bowling or ordering drinks at the bar.
- Candidates utilize several strategies to challenge their opponents.
- They can address each other on policy issues in debates and swapping columns in
newspaper op-ed pages.
- They can also use negative campaign tactics, doing opposition research to uncover
damaging information about opponents and running attack ads.
- Campaign Advertising
- Campaign advertising is one of the primary methods for candidates to reach the electorate.
- Each year, parties, candidates, organized interests and business spend over a $1
billion in campaigns, primarily to fund advertisements.
- Nearly every group runs campaign ads, and while most candidate ads are positive,
advocacy groups run uniformly negative campaign ads.
- Most ads rely on arresting images that evoke an emotional response by the viewer.
- The effect of campaign advertising is contested.
- Some argue that it depresses turnout and reinforces negative stereotypes about government.
- Research does show that advertising has beneficial effects.
- People exposed to campaign ads generally report higher interest in campaigns.
- Campaign ads highlight differences between the candidates, helping voters make informed
choices.
Campaign Finance
- Among other responsibilities, the Federal Elections Commission is tasked with regulating
how much money political campaigns spend and how they can spend it.
- Campaign finance rules have changed significantly over time, but the most recent
set of rules was passed in 2002, known as the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA;
known colloquially as the McCain-Feingold Act).
- Hard money is the money political action committees (PACs) give directly to candidates,
and is limited under the BCRA.
- Soft money is money that PACs can be used to support campaign advertising and the
mobilization of voters, as long as it does not explicitly support or oppose a candidate.
- Political parties are limited in the amount of hard money they can give to candidates,
but are not limited in their “independent expenditures” to support a candidate.
- Campaign finance reform is difficult because it requires balancing the right to
free speech with the idea that the rich should not dominate campaigns and decide
outcomes.
- Raw fundraising figures do not tell the whole story about campaign fundraising.
- Most campaign contributions do not come from big businesses, but rather from small
donations by everyday Americans.
- The majority of the money spent in campaigns is allotted to television ads, which
can be extremely expensive.
- Campaign financing is not a predictor of success: to have a chance at winning, candidates
have to raise money, but raising a lot does not guarantee outcomes.
- There is little evidence that campaign contributions alter legislator behavior,
or that contributors “buy votes.”
How Voters Decide
- Getting to the polls
- Voting is a costly activity: time spent learning about the candidates and going
to the polls could be spent elsewhere. Further, people have a very small influence
on the electoral outcome.
- The number of people who turnout is generally around 50 percent of eligible citizens
for general elections, and about 30 percent for primaries and caucuses.
- Turnout is lower among younger citizens, nonwhite citizens, and less educated citizens.
- Many people who vote do so because they feel an obligation of citizenship.
- Many people who do not vote are angry with the government and feel that the government’s
actions will not help them.
- Deciding whom to vote for
- Gathering information on all the candidates is costly, so citizens rely on voting
cues as shortcuts to a reasonable vote.
- Some use incumbency, partisanship, or personal economic experience as a way to inform
vote choice.
- Others vote based on the candidate’s backgrounds or life experiences.
- Normal and Nationalized Elections
- Generally, vote decisions for presidential and congressional elections are made
independently, particularly in normal elections.
- Split ticket voting occurs because voters often focus on the candidate, not the
party.
- In nationalized elections, voters focus more on the party that is in power and vote
against most of the candidates of that party.
Elections Matter
- The Republican and Democratic parties provide clear and systematic differences on
a wide range of issues, offering voters a choice.
- Although most voters do not take the time to read all the candidate platforms and
inform themselves on all the candidates, they are able to make reasonable votes
based on cues and shortcuts.
- Elections provide a mechanism for citizens to control how politicians behave, and
to hold them accountable for their actions.