Who Will Feed China?

In this provocative new book, the president of the Worldwatch Institute predicts that the potential for a grain deficit in China could trigger a world food shortage.

With rapid industrialization and a population growing by 14 million a year, China faces a potential grain deficit so large that it could overwhelm the export capacity of the United States and other exporting countries. This is the conclusion of this important new book from Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute. Brown says that the resulting fierce competition among importing countries will drive grain prices far above familiar levels.

With the economy expanding at 10 to 14 percent annually, China's 1.2 billion people are moving up the food chain at a record rate. The demand for grain in China is soaring as consumption of pork, poultry, eggs, beef, and beer rise with income. Never before have so many of the world's people moved up the food chain at the same time.

Even as the record pace of industrialization raises living standards, factory construction is consuming massive amounts of cropland, shrinking grain production. As China's grain deficit grows, food prices will rise throughout the world. The bottom line is that when China turns to the world markets on an ongoing basis, its food scarcity will become everyone's scarcity. Its shortages of cropland and water will become the world's shortages.

Based on an article that appeared in dozens of newspapers and magazines around the world, and that provoked comment from the Chinese government, this book is essential reading for government leaders and concerned citizens everywhere.

Lester R. Brown lives in Washington, D.C.

1995 / paperback / ISBN 0-393-31409-X / Charts, tables / 160 pages / ENVIRONMENT

• A title in the Worldwatch Environmental Alert series